Don’t Expect Too Much From Tax Credits
We are speaking of the federal homebuyer tax credits, in particular, which seem to be invoked as the blanket explanation for anything that does or doesn’t happen in the housing market. We were more circumspect than most of their ability to sustain any market rally after being extended and embellished in November. That appears the case today. Credits are good at pushing demand forward, but not so good at sustaining demand over time.
We’ve also been circumspect over the ability of low interest rates to keep things moving forward in perpetuity. To be sure, low rates matter and low mortgage rates make more homes more affordable to more people, but it’s still a matter of taking on new debt with a home purchase or lower-cost debt with a refinance. The only way debt can be serviced is with income, usually a job.
It’s really all about employment at this point. Fortunately, the news is improving on that front based on the past three months of employment data. Things might be moving slower than we’d like, but for potential borrowers, that’s actually good news. When employment shifts into gear, interest rates are likely to follow.
So, we’ve said it before, but we’ll say it again: improving employment, low mortgage rates, and stabilizing home prices (which, by the way, we think will remain stable, even with the REO and foreclosure overhang) coupled with soon-to-expire tax credits suggest to us that now is not the time to procrastinate
From the weekly newsletter of Dean Rizzi
Visit my website at www.deanrizzi.com
The Power of Permits
An acquaintance of mine came home from work to see a “stop work notice” posted on her front door. Two years ago, she submitted plans to build a second story addition and remodel her existing kitchen and bathrooms. She went thru the planning commission process and the application was approved. Due to the economy situation, it was decided not to go ahead with the addition.
Recently, they decided to go ahead with just the kitchen and bathroom remodel. Apparently, a neighbor called the city which resulted with a stop work notice even though the previous plans were approved, the application expires a year from the approval date.
I attended the meeting with the code enforcement officer, who met the homeowner, and I was pleased on how he interacted with them. It is a very intimating to have a stop notice on your door, and a city official in your home scrutinizing all the work that is in process. Even though they were in violation, the officer went thru the house, and told them what they needed to do to get back on track. Read more
Is Housing Still the Leader?
That appears to be the case, at least according to data released from the Census Bureau. Going back to 1968, the trend in housing starts has portended the trend in the overall economy. Should we be optimistic or pessimistic? That’s difficult to say. Monthly figures on starts are volatile, and housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. The good news is that going back to October, the trend in starts has been mostly stable and up. The bad news is that January’s free-fall in new-home sales could pressure the trend to change direction. Or maybe not. The problem in vetting the data is that no two periods are exactly alike and history never repeats itself perfectly. For example, Census Bureau data show that housing completions generally lag housing starts, as would be expected, except in the latter half of 2009, where starts have fallen off a cliff compared to completions, creating a wide, unprecedented divergence. So what does it all mean? Economists who believe that housing is the leading economic indicator aren’t very bullish on the economic outlook. We tend to be a little more bullish, because it can be misleading to read too much into historical correlations of two variables – in this case, housing and the economy. What’s more, the more correlations are vetted and become known, the more their predictive value tends to break down.
DeanRizzi
http://www.drlending.com/
Whadda Ya Mean They Said “NO”?!?!
There is a subject that’s been coming up a lot lately…the subject of Low Ball offers. It would seem many are advocates of offering a price on a house that is well below asking & what the current market will support. The thinking goes, you are showing the seller you will not be taken advantage of and you have the upper hand in negotiations. What never seems to be addressed is the notion that the seller might not be interested in playing this game and will simply say “NO”. No counter offer and negotiations officially over.
If a seller wants to sell and a buyer wants to buy then there is no reason a deal can’t be worked out. This is predicated on the idea that both parties are going into this with a willingness to negotiate in good faith. Writing under asking is not a bad idea, writing a reasonable offer below the asking says to the seller “I like your house and want to buy it, we just have a difference in opinion of value.” A low ball offers sends a different message. Read more
REOs, Short Sales, or Regular Sales?
I met a lady today at the Tanforan Mall. She says, “My husband wants to buy a house but only if it’s REO.” I asked why, she says because he believes he gets a great deal and that he can also bargain and offer less if it’s foreclosed. He believes that short sales and regular sales are not good real estate investments. She said that her husband doesn’t want to look at anything but foreclosed properties.
Is this how the public thinks? But, how about short sales? And what about those regular sales? As one of my colleagues says, “Regular sales, are really the short sales these days!” Isn’t that the fact? What, in your opinion, is a regular sale in today’s real estate market?
Shokoofeh Nowbakht
www.shokoo.com
Realtors Help Seniors
RSVP is Coming
May 3-7
Get The Word Out!
Register now at http://www.samcar.org/userfiles/file/RSVP10_homeownerAPP.pdf
WHAT IS RSVP?
RSVP is an annual week-long community outreach program that takes place in May 3-7 during “Adopt-A-Senior” Week. Realtors of San Mateo County provides free assistance to seniors who cannot otherwise perform certain household tasks due to physical or financial constraints.
FREE HOME SERVICES FOR SENIORS & THE HOMEBOUND
Washing windows, changing furnace filters, turning over mattresses, vacuuming, changing light bulbs, replacing smoke detector batteries and other similar household tasks are just a few chores that Realtors will perform.
The program is one way Realtors and Affiliates can give back to their communities.
Who is eligible? If you are a senior or homebound and live in San Bruno, South San Francisco, Daly City, Millbrae, San Mateo, Burlingame, Belmont, Foster City or anywhere in San Mateo County.
INTERESTED IN FREE HELP
Please call San Mateo County Association of Realtors at 650-696-8200 or
register now at http://www.samcar.org/userfiles/file/RSVP10_homeownerAPP.pdf
Where To Eat In San Bruno?
Ok, so I love to help people buy and sell houses but still I need to eat! I LOVE to eat and I love to cook! I love to dine out and I love family and friend gatherings at home over a large home cooked meal. Since I live and work in San Bruno, I like to dine locally. Sometimes I go to San Francisco, my hometown, but most of the time, when we have the opportunity to dine out, we go local!
A few of my favorite places are Don Pico’s for Mexican fine dining, La Paloma Taqueria, Hon Lin for Chinese, Sushi House, Famous Johnny’s for pizza and beer, Amma’s Kitchen for Indian, and the West Coast Cafe for Italian. All of these places are walking distance from my house.
Living in San Bruno is really super convenient. From my house, I can walk to the Mexican market, the dry cleaners, the library, and the corner grocery store. Not to mention I can walk to my kids’ school, our friends’ houses on Friday nights for “family fun nights”, and my office, if I am so inclined. I always drive and it’s just 6 blocks away!
I love Don Pico’s a lot! I mean a lot lot! My favorite dish is the crab enchiladas with green sauce made with “real” crab! I could live on the chips and salsa. I love spicy salsa with good flavor! I also love the ambiance at Don Pico’s. It’s a warm, comfortable room with a lot of traditional Mexican decorations and some impressive ones, too! My favorite being a big framed picture of Frida Khalo! The booths are from Original Joe’s on Powell Street in San Francisco! The proprieter is Isaac Mejia. He’s great! He is welcoming, enthusiastic about his food, and keeps his menu delicious and interesting. He’s currently the president of the San Bruno Lion’s Club. His sisters help at the restaraunt, too. They are fantastic! On Friday and Saturday nights there is a live guitar player/singer. It’s just awesome!
Check out their website: www.DonPicosBistro.com
Do you have a favorite San Bruno restaraunt?
The City of South San Francisco made a Boo-Boo
Incase any readers happened to get caught running a red light in South San Francisco prior to January 27th, you may want to read the following news story…
,SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, CA (KGO) — Red light runners who were caught on camera in South San Francisco will get a legal break over a big, big mistake, and it is going to cost the city a lot of trouble and money.
“It’s a big mess,” South San Francisco Police Chief Mike Massoni said, referring to the red light cameras on two of the city’s busiest intersections — El Camino and Westborough, and El Camino and Hickey.
Since they were put in Aug. 15, the cameras have nabbed thousands of red light runners. The cameras were installed by the American Traffic Solutions (ATS) and they are working without a hitch, except for one thing.
“We didn’t go to a public meeting and have council formally ratify the contract between us and our vendor,” Massoni said.
So just what does that mean? Read more
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