The Farther They Fall, The Higher They Could Rise
Richard Carson and Samuel Dastrup, two university professors, recently published an interesting academic paper (a synopsis is posted at Econbrowser.com). Carson and Dastrup examined how the magnitude of housing-price declines correlated with various factors, such as overbuilding, extent of sub-prime lending, and median income. Not surprisingly, these factors were related to price declines. However, the most important factor was the magnitude of the previous price run-up, which accounted for more than half of the observed variance in the size of the price decline.
The takeaway from Carson and Dastrup’s research is that the farther prices ran up in a hot market, the farther they tend to run down in the subsequent cooling. Not surprisingly, the hottest markets – Las Vegas , Riverside , Miami and Sacramento – have fallen the farthest and cooled the fastest. Many of these markets are now as cold as an Arctic winter, particularly Las Vegas , where home prices have dropped 50% and more.
However, cold markets often provide the best buying opportunity. Consider Las Vegas : a home that cost $200,000 in 2007 and lost 50% of its value costs $100,000 today. A 50% gain pushes its value up to $150,000. In other words, prices do not have to appreciate back to their peaks for people to book considerable equity or an investment gain. This simple math is worth repeating to homebuyers and residential real estate investors, especially to those residing in or near frigid markets.
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2 Responses to “The Farther They Fall, The Higher They Could Rise”
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Dean,
Interesting thought,
Probably some good opportunites in those areas.
Brian Boisson
Real Estate never drops as low as it wwas and always increases higher than it was — the problem was consurmer had begun to view real estate as a short term investment and it never was intended to be that.