Dean Rizzi

The Costs are Outweighing the Benefits

June 29, 2010 · Dean Rizzi  

We’ve stated that the benefits of low interest rates have run their course. We hold to our contrary opinion that low rates are actually hindering more than helping markets these days. Consider the mortgage market: Even though mortgage rates are dwelling in the basement, fewer people are applying for mortgages. The MBA reported that purchase activity declined 1.2 percent to the second-lowest level since 1997 last week, while refinancing activity slid 7.3 percent from its May 2009 highs.

The Federal Reserve’s low-rate policy is hardly inspiring confidence. “Rates must be low because the economy is circling the drain,” so the man-on-the-street rationale goes. It’s the wrong message to send, because promoting risk aversion also means promoting inertia. Risk-averse markets are simply less willing to engage in riskier, but worthwhile, economic activity.

This risk-averse sentiment is readily reflected in the capital markets, where the relatively non-productive assets of gold and Treasury securities continue to be the investments of choice. That’s unfortunate, because we’d all be better off if there were more investment in the very productive (though riskier) assets of home purchases and renovation and mortgage lending.

 www.deanrizzi.com

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Comments

3 Responses to “The Costs are Outweighing the Benefits”

  1. Larry Franzella on June 30th, 2010 8:47 am

    Rates are fantastic! People need to take notice!

  2. Brian Boisson on June 30th, 2010 9:08 am

    Thanks, Dean!

    Another interesting analysis!

    Brian

  3. Lee Ginsburg on July 22nd, 2010 11:02 pm

    never thought of it that way. I do think if rates jumped up for a bit more people would take advantage of the lowest rates in 50 years. I find the young buyers do not understand the impact rates have. They have grwon accustomed to low rates for the last 5 years plus. I tell some of them that the 0′s are not that far past and we had 18% rates. In comprehensive.

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