Here is a selection of recent posts by Dean Rizzi:
Buyer (Still) Beware
We warn once again that it will not be a buyer’s market into perpetuity, though others have a different opinion. Some forecasters – Goldman Sachs being the most prominent – project the Federal Reserve will hold the fed funds rate low for “many years” in order to help U.S. consumers and companies pull out of their funk. If that were the case, then it would appear that mortgages rates ranging between 4.5% and 5.5% could be the norm deep into 2011.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that homebuyers are still negotiating good discounts based on data released in July’s Zillow Real Estate Market Report. Zillow notes that buyers paid 3.3%, or nearly $7,039, less than the last listing price on homes for sale during July. What’s more, 22.8% of all homes listed for sale on Zillow during August were listed for a median 96 days, up from 91 in July.
It sounds like the trend will remain the buyer’s friend through 2011 – until you dig a little deeper. Zillow also noted that the 3.3% discount is down from June’s 3.5% discount and substantially down from January’s 4.6% discount. It is also worth noting, yet again, that the usual hard-hit burgs in Nevada , Florida and California skew the data.
“Even if prices stabilize and rise, we can still finance at cheaper rates,” so the counter argument goes. Yes, that is the case today, but we think Goldman and others are underestimating how quickly an economy can turn and how quickly inflation can conflate. It is a buyers’ market today, so buyers should take advantage of it today. As for tomorrow? We are much less sure.
Money to Spare
All that talk about TARP recipients withholding their bailout funds appears to be just that – talk. Lending among the top 21 recipients of bailout funds through the Capital Purchase Program within the Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program posted growth in May, with mortgage originations rising by 7% over April’s figures.
Furthermore, there is more money available to lend to more people. A few weeks ago we mentioned Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s home affordable refinance program. It’s worth plugging again. The HARP affects millions of homeowners currently in Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans and permits first-mortgage loan amounts up to 125% of the home’s current appraised value, with and without a second mortgage already attached. In addition, closing costs and as many as two payments can be rolled into the loan and up to $2,000 can be taken out of the mortgage. Read more
We’re Getting the Job Done
Conservatives will say government has done too much, while liberals will say government has done too little. No sense in debating the argument; the differences are irreconcilable. But what isn’t debatable is the recovery, which will fully bloom because of the efforts of the private section.
Former junk-bond king Michael Milken noted as much in the Wall Street Journal. One of the more pervasive myths is that money is in short supply, but it’s really not. Milken noted that corporations worldwide have raised nearly $2 trillion in public and private markets this year, a clear sign the economy is improving. The fact that non-investment-grade companies, such as Harrah’s Entertainment, Warner Music Group, MGM Mirage, and Rite Aid, are now paying down bank debt with newly raised funds shows the capacity of our financial markets to re-capitalize, thanks mostly to the efforts of private financiers. Read more
Lower Rates Aren’t In The Bag
Last week’s drop in mortgage rates was a welcome relief, and you would think that more relief should be forthcoming. After all, inflation appears to be a dead issue, given recent data on producer and consumer prices. Inflation and interest rates are highly correlated: When one falls, the other usually falls in tandem.
But there is more to the story than inflation. All interest rates are determined relative to risk-free market interest rates, with short-term Treasury bills serving as a proxy. But most interest rates are not risk-free. Mortgages rates are certainly not risk-free, which is why they are higher than Treasury bill rates. What’s more, mortgage rates are heavily influenced by rates on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). MBS rates, in turn, are heavily influenced by yields on Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
And there is the rub. Treasury securities prices tumbled last week after Read more
The Whole Picture
Yes, mortgages rates have risen substantially over the past three weeks, and we can’t be sure when, or even if, they will come down. Mortgage rates are important, to be sure, but they are only part of the equation. Income and relative home prices matter too. On that front, average hourly wages continue to show incremental increases, while home prices continue to stabilize, and even rise, in many parts of the country.
Distinctions matter as well. Much has been made of the fact that lower interest rates mean more money in the pockets of borrowers. More money in the pockets of borrowers, in turn, means more money to spend to stimulate the economy. But let’s not forget that it’s a two-way street: The lender on the other end receives less income; thus, he has less income to spend. In other words, refinances with no equity extraction are really a wash in terms of aggregate demand for goods and services. Read more
It’s Getting Better All the Time
It’s Getting Better All the Time
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has forecast an end to the US recession, which he believes will be kaput before 2010. Bernanke also told the Congressional Joint Economic Committee that the collapse in the housing market, which began three years ago, may have bottomed out, something we’ve been saying for the past month. Read more
VA Loan Questions and Answers
Can I get a VA loan if I have had a bankruptcy in the last few years?
VA credit standards state that a veteran with a bankruptcy less than 3 years ago would generally not be considered a satisfactory credit risk unless: the veteran or spouse has obtained items on credit since the bankruptcy and has paid the obligations in a satisfactory manner for a continued period; and the bankruptcy was caused by circumstances beyond the control of the borrower, which would have to be verified. A bankruptcy discharged 3 to 5 years ago must be given some consideration in the underwriting of the loan. A bankruptcy discharged more than 5 years ago may be disregarded. These are the minimum standards that mortgage companies must follow when making a VA loan. In 95% of the cases, companies make the decision to approve a loan without VA’s prior approval. Keep in mind that mortgage companies also have money at risk in giving you a VA loan, so they may have stricter credit standards than those mandated by VA.
How large of a loan can I get? If my guaranty entitlement is $36,000, does this mean I am limited to a $36,000 loan? Read more
January home sales in the west are WAY up!
I just caught this article off of Google AP. I’m passing it along because it gives more detailed picture of the January sales report. NAR reports existing home sales where down to their lowest levels in six years. However, if you look at the western region, they are up 32.1 percent from a year ago. Although prices are down, sales jumped 57% in the bay area!! Buyers are clearly taking advantage of the high inventory. What a great time for young families to get into that first home!
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h78GtI74ZouhZ1bCfF7cOWPQWKzwD96IS94O1
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