PruCalVoices is a real estate blog supported by Prudential California Realty located in San Bruno, California and www.PruCal.com
PruCalVoices is a real estate blog supported by Prudential California Realty located in San Bruno, California and www.PruCal.com
Whether a Federal Reserve action is inflationary or deflationary is difficult to gauge, for the simple fact that there isn’t a definitive definition of inflation and deflation. Some economists argue that rising prices are a measure of inflation while falling prices are a measure of deflation. That’s too simple, though, because there are many variables that influence prices – supply and demand, technology and money supply to name the obvious. It’s impossible to gauge which variable has the greatest impact. Read more
There was an interesting article about trading up in the Chronicle today. Check it out.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/ontheblock/detail?entry_id=69044&tsp=1
With the vaules I see and the interest rates… this could be one of the best times to buy a home in years…. whether you are trading up or not.
Dean Rizzi
www.deanrizzi.com
We’ve stated that the benefits of low interest rates have run their course. We hold to our contrary opinion that low rates are actually hindering more than helping markets these days. Consider the mortgage market: Even though mortgage rates are dwelling in the basement, fewer people are applying for mortgages. The MBA reported that purchase activity declined 1.2 percent to the second-lowest level since 1997 last week, while refinancing activity slid 7.3 percent from its May 2009 highs.
The Federal Reserve’s low-rate policy is hardly inspiring confidence. “Rates must be low because the economy is circling the drain,” so the man-on-the-street rationale goes. It’s the wrong message to send, because promoting risk aversion also means promoting inertia. Risk-averse markets are simply less willing to engage in riskier, but worthwhile, economic activity.
This risk-averse sentiment is readily reflected in the capital markets, where the relatively non-productive assets of gold and Treasury securities continue to be the investments of choice. That’s unfortunate, because we’d all be better off if there were more investment in the very productive (though riskier) assets of home purchases and renovation and mortgage lending.
We were expecting a little more, but at least it’s trending in the right direction. We are speaking of the employment report, which showed payrolls rose by 431,000 last month.
That would be very good news, if not for the fact that 411,000 of the new hires were related to the census. Nevertheless, that still leaves a net positive for the private sector. The increase was enough to push the unemployment rate down to 9.7 percent (though some pundits argue the drop was really due to a lower participation rate).
You never want to read too much into a single month of data, but we remain encouraged: job growth and wages picked up from April to May, while the average workweek lengthened. And although moderate compared to past post-recessions, the recovery is looking more sustainable after consumer spending and business investment rose at a healthy pace in the first quarter.
Overall, we think this latest employment report provides another reason to act now in both the mortgage and housing markets.
We’ve been saying for the past month or so that we’re not particularly worried about the end of the federal homebuyers tax credits. We also weren’t particularly concerned when the Federal Reserve said it would cease purchasing mortgage-backed securities. After all, the only way to discover if a market is truly healthy and viable is to stop subsidizing it.
It’s still early to render a verdict, but so far so good. People recognize that the combination of low rates and lower home prices represent a great opportunity, while many shoppers who failed to find a home to qualify for the tax credit remain undeterred and, just as important, rational – understanding the go-go days of the early 2000s are over. And that’s a good thing. The market of that era was driven more by speculation and less by fundamentals. And though it was highly remunerative for many of us, we see how it turned out.
In housing, slow and steady wins the race, which is why we continue to advise our clients that today’s market offers good fundamentally sound deals that can be financed at good economically advantageous interest rates. Sounds like a win-win deal to us.
It’s an important question, since it appears the homebuyers tax credits won’t be extended. But it’s a question not to be feared. We think it’s time the housing market stood on its own feet anyway. After all, we can’t gauge the health of a market if it’s still supported with taxpayer stanchions.
But that’s okay; we think the housing and mortgage markets are sufficiently healthy to stand alone. Pessimism is the intellectual position, but the fact is the economy is getting better: Despite worries that American consumers might hunker down for years — spooked by debt, lost savings, and unemployment — austerity has given way to shadows of a new shopping spree: households are replacing cars, upgrading home furnishings, and amassing gadgets. What’s more, wealth – at least wealth measured by equity holdings – is booming.
On the mortgage side, private investors are returning. A California firm recently completed the first private-sector sale of a security backed by mortgages in nearly two years, potentially reopening a market slammed shut by the housing crisis. The $238-million deal was of the highest quality, to be sure, with borrowers making an average down payment of 45 percent and mortgage payments comprising less than 30 percent of income. But as the economy continues to improve and investors become less risk adverse, less restrictive mortgages will be securitized.
Bottom line: we see a growing economy, improving employment, stable home prices, and less restrictive (though higher rate) mortgages in our future. In other words, we see a market for buying and refinancing today.
We are speaking of the federal homebuyer tax credits, in particular, which seem to be invoked as the blanket explanation for anything that does or doesn’t happen in the housing market. We were more circumspect than most of their ability to sustain any market rally after being extended and embellished in November. That appears the case today. Credits are good at pushing demand forward, but not so good at sustaining demand over time.
We’ve also been circumspect over the ability of low interest rates to keep things moving forward in perpetuity. To be sure, low rates matter and low mortgage rates make more homes more affordable to more people, but it’s still a matter of taking on new debt with a home purchase or lower-cost debt with a refinance. The only way debt can be serviced is with income, usually a job.
It’s really all about employment at this point. Fortunately, the news is improving on that front based on the past three months of employment data. Things might be moving slower than we’d like, but for potential borrowers, that’s actually good news. When employment shifts into gear, interest rates are likely to follow.
So, we’ve said it before, but we’ll say it again: improving employment, low mortgage rates, and stabilizing home prices (which, by the way, we think will remain stable, even with the REO and foreclosure overhang) coupled with soon-to-expire tax credits suggest to us that now is not the time to procrastinate
From the weekly newsletter of Dean Rizzi
Visit my website at www.deanrizzi.com
That appears to be the case, at least according to data released from the Census Bureau. Going back to 1968, the trend in housing starts has portended the trend in the overall economy. Should we be optimistic or pessimistic? That’s difficult to say. Monthly figures on starts are volatile, and housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. The good news is that going back to October, the trend in starts has been mostly stable and up. The bad news is that January’s free-fall in new-home sales could pressure the trend to change direction. Or maybe not. The problem in vetting the data is that no two periods are exactly alike and history never repeats itself perfectly. For example, Census Bureau data show that housing completions generally lag housing starts, as would be expected, except in the latter half of 2009, where starts have fallen off a cliff compared to completions, creating a wide, unprecedented divergence. So what does it all mean? Economists who believe that housing is the leading economic indicator aren’t very bullish on the economic outlook. We tend to be a little more bullish, because it can be misleading to read too much into historical correlations of two variables – in this case, housing and the economy. What’s more, the more correlations are vetted and become known, the more their predictive value tends to break down.
DeanRizzi
http://www.drlending.com/
