Is Housing Still the Leader?
That appears to be the case, at least according to data released from the Census Bureau. Going back to 1968, the trend in housing starts has portended the trend in the overall economy. Should we be optimistic or pessimistic? That’s difficult to say. Monthly figures on starts are volatile, and housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. The good news is that going back to October, the trend in starts has been mostly stable and up. The bad news is that January’s free-fall in new-home sales could pressure the trend to change direction. Or maybe not. The problem in vetting the data is that no two periods are exactly alike and history never repeats itself perfectly. For example, Census Bureau data show that housing completions generally lag housing starts, as would be expected, except in the latter half of 2009, where starts have fallen off a cliff compared to completions, creating a wide, unprecedented divergence. So what does it all mean? Economists who believe that housing is the leading economic indicator aren’t very bullish on the economic outlook. We tend to be a little more bullish, because it can be misleading to read too much into historical correlations of two variables – in this case, housing and the economy. What’s more, the more correlations are vetted and become known, the more their predictive value tends to break down.
DeanRizzi
http://www.drlending.com/
Happy New Year?
As we approach the end of 2009, things seem to be looking more promising in terms of the real estate industry. The California Association of Realtors just released a report with the following “Quick Facts”:
* Existing, single-family home sales increased 4.7 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 536,720 units on an annualized basis.
* The statewide median price of an existing single-family home increased 2.4 percent in November to $304,520 compared with October 2009.
* C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index fell to 4.5 months in November, compared with 7.1 months in November 2008.
According to the C.A.R.’s President Steve Goddard: “First-time buyers continued to drive the market in November, as many opened escrow to take advantage of the federal tax credit prior to its original Nov. 30 expiration. The extension and expansion of the tax credit until April 30, 2010, along with low interest rates, should continue to positively impact the market in coming months. Read more
It’s Working and Working Well!!!
You might ask, what is working and working well. I am speaking about the $8000 Home Buying Credit. A recent home buyer brought up the $8000 credit and told me that was the motivating factor for him and his wife purchasing a home. The termination date creates urgency and action. Low prices are motivating but not the cause of action. Many think they can time the market. Good Luck to them. People in the business think the lowest interest rates in 40 years should be creating urgency. It certainly makes people think but low rates is all many of these young first time buyers know. I purchased a home in 1982 at 14% interest and that was considered good. Today’s 5% and below interest rates are like the “After Christmas Sale”. But still does not create the urgency since many believe it will last forever.
The $8000 federal tax credit was extended and now sounds like it will really terminate April 30, 2010. Now that creates urgency! OK; the credit created a home sale and that helps stabilize pricing. Let’s not forget all the mouths a home sale feeds: the realtor, mortgage broker, title people, escrow company, termite inspector, home inspector, city tax coffers, and more. Now let me show you all the mouths my client fed by spending his credit on: landscaping, painting, double pane windows, window coverings, furniture and more. Others may remodel a kitchen or bath, carpet, appliances, roof, etc. My client purchased the home from a flipper who must have put $50,000 into the home. Add that up, and the $8000 quickly turns into over $100,000 of added income to local people. That feeds lots of mouths. Being employed in Real Estate and related fields, as Americans and Smart business people we should be ecstatic. I know I am. I am a believer. Read more
My Thoughts for Real Estate in 2009 in San Francisco and the Peninsula
The year began with home prices free falling and no end was in sight. In April we, in the business began seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. Homes in the starting price points began selling and inventory started to stabilize. Banks were pricing their homes on the low range and were receiving multiple offers. I consider single family homes under $700,000 to be the starting price point on the peninsula. Homes over a million dollars were having trouble due to the higher interest rates for loans of that size and the lack of lenders willing to loan. Loans under $729,750 were backed by the government and hovered around all time lows all year. Loans were broken up into different categories. Rates for loans under $417,000 were below 5%; rates for loans between $417,000 and $729,750 were slightly higher. Above that they took a jump. Finally we are now seeing the rates for the larger loans fall into line. Today rates are below 4% fixed for five years for loans under $417,000. That could be the right loan for many people. Read more
The Shoe is on the Other Foot Now
I am responsible for selling my mother’s home. Great I got an easy listing. Well not that quick. She lives in New Jersey. And they do things differently than we here in northern California and I am not licensed in New Jersey. They use lawyers instead of Escrow and Title companies. I pondered how a deal is ever going to close with two lawyers involved. The people I spoke with assured me they do. It seems radon gas is an issue in this part of New Jersey and the seller is responsible for mediating it. My mother lived in an adult community where Open Houses and For Sale signs are not permitted. No wonder as I drove the community I did not see any other homes for sale. I thought there was no inventory and I would receive multiple offers just like here in the San Bruno and South San Francisco. After doing additional research I come to find they have a year’s worth of inventory in the area adult communities. Read more
Is history repeating itself?
In recent months the entry level Real Estate market has shifted and become for some people, a competitive sport. If priced correctly homes aren’t lasting past the first week’s open house as buyers are frantically racing to submit offers. Supply is low and demand is high and we all know with that combination multiple offers arise. What’s good for the goose isn’t necassarily good for the gander.. is history repeating itself? Is what is occuring now exactly what we saw a few years ago when home prices soared and multiple offers were just expected? There are many factors that come into play, some may argue this market is nothing like the one we saw a few years ago. We can say for sure banks have tightened up their guidelines to put it gently. Unless you can prove you qualify, you don’t get approved. Interest rates are lower and home prices have dropped so buyers in today’s market essentially have more buying power. Appraisals have been tightened and often times more then one is necessary to get approved by the lender. With that said, is it really all that different? Are consumers so eager to purchase a home for fear they will “miss the boat” that they are over extending themselves to make it happen. Hopefully with the tightened lender guidelines, history won’t repeat itself. What are your thoughts as I would love to hear them…
Nicole Machado www.mve2day.com
Doing the Right Thing…
As most of our readers know, our Prudential office has kiosks at Serramonte and Tanforan Malls. Many of us agents do regular shifts at the kiosk each month in the hope that we will meet buyers and sellers.
Recently I was covering the night shift, which goes from 6:00 p.m. – 9:00 p.m. It was very quiet that night, but at one point, a very young man stopped by the booth and said he was thinking about selling a house he owns in South San Francisco. I would, normally, be very excited by this (leaping up and down with glee, actually!) Unfortunately, the more we talked, the more I realized that he shouldn’t sell this house.
It seems that he inherited it from his Grandmother and owns it free and clear. He’s still going to college and living in the house. And, while he isn’t thinking about it now, someday he’ll probably have a family and want a house. If he sells it now, the money will be gone and he will be back to struggling like everyone else to afford a home. Read more
Buyer’s Market?
Buyer’s Market? You bet it is. I will be speaking about the low end of each market area. On the Peninsula and San Francisco we talk about Single Family homes priced under $700,000. In the East Bay it is below $400,000. Buyer’s Market yes but not in the traditional way. Today’s buyer cannot expect to purchase a home for 20% off the list price, but they can expect to purchase a home 30-60% off of 2004 prices. Today’s buyer cannot expect the seller to take care of all necessary repairs, but the buyer can expect to receive an $8000 Federal Tax Credit and an extra $10,000 State Tax Credit if they are purchasing a brand new home. Today’s first time buyer cannot expect to be the only offer, but they can expect to receive the lowest interest rates in 40 years. I think it is just in a different way.
The Real Estate Market in San Bruno, South San Francisco, Daly City, San Mateo is hot just like the weather. Prices are based on supply and demand. Demand is strong as all smart people want to take advantage of the buyers market. By the way the $8000 Federal Tax Credit terminates Nov. 30 of this year. Read more
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