Dean Rizzi

Possibly Overstated, But That’s Okay
November 8, 2009 · Dean Rizzi · 3 Comments

Many kudos have been given to the federal homebuyer’s credit for revitalizing the housing market. To be sure, the credit has moved people into the market who wouldn’t have been there otherwise. However, are we overstating the impact? The question is worth asking, considering a recent analysis of the cash-for-clunkers program by Edmunds.com, which found the overwhelming majority of auto sales during the program would have occurred anyway. In other words, sales were simply moved up a little because of the credit.
Perhaps the same situation has occurred in the housing market. Perhaps too many of us are giving too much credit to the homebuyer’s credit while giving short shrift to important economic variables. After all, low home prices and low mortgage rates should be expected to lift the market. That said, no one could say which had the bigger impact, so it is understandable the industry is playing it safe and lobbying for the credit extension. Nevertheless, should its efforts fail (and don’t get us wrong, we’d like to see the credit extended), it’s worth noting that most decisions are based on economic reasons, not tax reasons.      Read more