Dean Rizzi

The Costs are Outweighing the Benefits
June 29, 2010 · · 3 Comments

We’ve stated that the benefits of low interest rates have run their course. We hold to our contrary opinion that low rates are actually hindering more than helping markets these days. Consider the mortgage market: Even though mortgage rates are dwelling in the basement, fewer people are applying for mortgages. The MBA reported that purchase activity declined 1.2 percent to the second-lowest level since 1997 last week, while refinancing activity slid 7.3 percent from its May 2009 highs.

The Federal Reserve’s low-rate policy is hardly inspiring confidence. “Rates must be low because the economy is circling the drain,” so the man-on-the-street rationale goes. It’s the wrong message to send, because promoting risk aversion also means promoting inertia. Risk-averse markets are simply less willing to engage in riskier, but worthwhile, economic activity.

This risk-averse sentiment is readily reflected in the capital markets, where the relatively non-productive assets of gold and Treasury securities continue to be the investments of choice. That’s unfortunate, because we’d all be better off if there were more investment in the very productive (though riskier) assets of home purchases and renovation and mortgage lending.

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Dean Rizzi

The Post-Credit Era
May 19, 2010 · · 3 Comments

 We’ve been saying for the past month or so that we’re not particularly worried about the end of the federal homebuyers tax credits. We also weren’t particularly concerned when the Federal Reserve said it would cease purchasing mortgage-backed securities. After all, the only way to discover if a market is truly healthy and viable is to stop subsidizing it.

It’s still early to render a verdict, but so far so good. People recognize that the combination of low rates and lower home prices represent a great opportunity, while many shoppers who failed to find a home to qualify for the tax credit remain undeterred and, just as important, rational – understanding the go-go days of the early 2000s are over. And that’s a good thing. The market of that era was driven more by speculation and less by fundamentals. And though it was highly remunerative for many of us, we see how it turned out.

In housing, slow and steady wins the race, which is why we continue to advise our clients that today’s market offers good fundamentally sound deals that can be financed at good economically advantageous interest rates. Sounds like a win-win deal to us.

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Dean Rizzi

It’s Getting Better All the Time
May 18, 2009 · · 7 Comments

It’s Getting Better All the Time

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has forecast an end to the US recession, which he believes will be kaput before 2010. Bernanke also told the Congressional Joint Economic Committee that the collapse in the housing market, which began three years ago, may have bottomed out, something we’ve been saying for the past month. Read more