Dean Rizzi

Is Rental Real Estate the Next Big Opportunity?
April 27, 2011 · · 2 Comments

It could very well be. Residential rental vacancy rates are below the 10-percent mark, where they had been lodged for most of the past three years. Peggy Alford, president of Rent.com, predicts that by 2012 the vacancy rate will hover at a mere 5 percent.
Since 2002, rental rates have been flat, and down of late (inflation-adjusted). If Rent.com projections are anywhere close to expectations, we could see a rise in rents of 15 percent over the next two years. That would be a significant reversal of fortune: rent hikes have averaged less than 1 percent annually over the past decade, according to Commerce Department statistics.
Pent up demand appears real: More than 1.2 million young adults moved back with their parents from 2005 to 2010, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Many others doubled up together. Now that the recession is over, many of these young people are ready to find new living quarters, mostly as renters. Where there are renters, there must be property owners (even if they are not occupants). As rental rates increase, the capitalized market value of property increases too – that means rising real estate prices.
We’ve frequently noted that opportunities always abound, regardless of the perceived direness of current circumstances. The outlook in the rentals is another reason we think they abound in the residential real estate market.

Dean Rizzi
www.drlending.com

Dean Rizzi

Inflation or Deflation?
September 30, 2010 · · 3 Comments

Whether a Federal Reserve action is inflationary or deflationary is difficult to gauge, for the simple fact that there isn’t a definitive definition of inflation and deflation. Some economists argue that rising prices are a measure of inflation while falling prices are a measure of deflation. That’s too simple, though, because there are many variables that influence prices – supply and demand, technology and money supply to name the obvious. It’s impossible to gauge which variable has the greatest impact.    Read more

Dean Rizzi

Lower Rates Aren’t In The Bag
June 24, 2009 · · 4 Comments

Last week’s drop in mortgage rates was a welcome relief, and you would think that more relief should be forthcoming. After all, inflation appears to be a dead issue, given recent data on producer and consumer prices. Inflation and interest rates are highly correlated: When one falls, the other usually falls in tandem.

But there is more to the story than inflation. All interest rates are determined relative to risk-free market interest rates, with short-term Treasury bills serving as a proxy. But most interest rates are not risk-free. Mortgages rates are certainly not risk-free, which is why they are higher than Treasury bill rates. What’s more, mortgage rates are heavily influenced by rates on mortgage-backed securities (MBS). MBS rates, in turn, are heavily influenced by yields on Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.

And there is the rub. Treasury securities prices tumbled last week after Read more