The Post-Credit Era
We’ve been saying for the past month or so that we’re not particularly worried about the end of the federal homebuyers tax credits. We also weren’t particularly concerned when the Federal Reserve said it would cease purchasing mortgage-backed securities. After all, the only way to discover if a market is truly healthy and viable is to stop subsidizing it.
It’s still early to render a verdict, but so far so good. People recognize that the combination of low rates and lower home prices represent a great opportunity, while many shoppers who failed to find a home to qualify for the tax credit remain undeterred and, just as important, rational – understanding the go-go days of the early 2000s are over. And that’s a good thing. The market of that era was driven more by speculation and less by fundamentals. And though it was highly remunerative for many of us, we see how it turned out.
In housing, slow and steady wins the race, which is why we continue to advise our clients that today’s market offers good fundamentally sound deals that can be financed at good economically advantageous interest rates. Sounds like a win-win deal to us.
Is Housing Still the Leader?
That appears to be the case, at least according to data released from the Census Bureau. Going back to 1968, the trend in housing starts has portended the trend in the overall economy. Should we be optimistic or pessimistic? That’s difficult to say. Monthly figures on starts are volatile, and housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. The good news is that going back to October, the trend in starts has been mostly stable and up. The bad news is that January’s free-fall in new-home sales could pressure the trend to change direction. Or maybe not. The problem in vetting the data is that no two periods are exactly alike and history never repeats itself perfectly. For example, Census Bureau data show that housing completions generally lag housing starts, as would be expected, except in the latter half of 2009, where starts have fallen off a cliff compared to completions, creating a wide, unprecedented divergence. So what does it all mean? Economists who believe that housing is the leading economic indicator aren’t very bullish on the economic outlook. We tend to be a little more bullish, because it can be misleading to read too much into historical correlations of two variables – in this case, housing and the economy. What’s more, the more correlations are vetted and become known, the more their predictive value tends to break down.
DeanRizzi
http://www.drlending.com/
A Look at the Past and a Look at the Future
This time last year we predicted that 2009 would end a lot better than it began. We were right, though it wasn’t a great accomplishment to be right considering how low the housing market, stock market, and overall economy had sunk during the latter half of 2008. As we’ve stated repeatedly over the past year, a low base and a dour outlook provide an excellent buying opportunity, so we weren’t surprised when buyers stepped forward to exploit the opportunities.
Looking ahead to 2010, we see continued improvement in home sales and home prices. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if the market turns to a sellers’ market from a buyers’ market by year’s end. We are almost certain that will be the case if we see a two to three percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. Low mortgage rates and income tax credits are contributing factors in stabilizing the market, to be sure, but no factor is more important than employment in not only maintaining stability but stimulating activity. Read more
Positives of This Economy!!!
JEvery Negative Has a PositiveJ
Positives of This Economy
1. Bay Area Housing Affordability has gone from 16% to 38%
2. Debt of Americans is Decreasing.
3. A Large Increase in People Volunteering.
4. A Large increase in Military Enrollment.
5. First Time Home Buyers can get an $8000 Tax Credit.
6. Buyers of California New Homes can get a $10,000 State Tax Credit.
7. People are able to modify or refinance their loans to an affordable payment.
8. Businesses have the opportunity to clean up their books and start fresh.
9. Great Opportunity to Purchase a new car or any other major purchase.
10. Tax on Debt Forgiveness is waived.
And one of my favorites; you can Buy any Foot Long Sub for only $5.00
Please add to this list of Positives
www.leesellsmore.com
Housing Stimulus – An Open Letter to the Politicians
To Congress Woman Jackie Spier, Senator Diane Feinstein, and Senator Boxer
I am a local realtor specializing in San Mateo and San Francisco Counties. I do not think the $15,000 Home Buyer Tax Credit in the Economic Stimulus Package is making best use of Tax Payers money. Read more
How does the San Mateo County MCC program help first time home buyers save money?
First of all, what is MCC anyway? MCC stands for Mortgage Credit Certificate. The MCC is a federal tax credit for eligible first-time homebuyers. It helps first time buyers by giving them an additional tax benefit in addition to the normal tax benefit from owning a home to begin with.
Here is how it works. Read more
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